Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

We make available both the aggregated data (2050 and 2070 Rainfall erosivity for 3 scenarios) and the 102 contributing simulations (3 scenarios x 19 models x 2 time-scale) in a GEOTIFF format with a 30 arc-seconds spatial resolution.
Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070
Resource Type: 
Datasets
Soil Threats Data
Registration is requested: 
Yes
Year: 
2022
Themes: 
Erosion by water
Erosion by water›Global Soil Erosion
Erosion by water›Global Soil Erosion – Future projections

We present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

Metadata

Title: Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070
Description: This data collection includes the rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070 for three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the individual projections for 19 models for each scenario and two time-lines (2050 and 2070). In total, we make available 102 simulations and 6 aggregated results. In addition, we make available the 6 datasets which refer to the changes (%) between baseline and 2050 and 2050-2070.
Spatial coverage: Globe
Pixel size: 1 km (30 arc-seconds)
Measurement Unit: MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1
Projection: GCS_WGS_1984
Temporal coverage:  2050 and 2070
More information: Future Global Rainfall Erosivity in 2050 and 2070

Main Data source: Global Rainfall ERosivity Database (GloREDa)

 

References

Panagos, P., Borrelli, P., Matthews, F., Liakos, L., Bezak, N., Diodato, N. and Ballabio, C., 2022. Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070. Journal of Hydrology, 610, Art.no.127865.DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865

Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

 

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For any problem / question / comment on this dataset, please contact ec-esdac@ec.europa.eu

Notification:

  1. The data provided has been prepared for use by internal research activities in the Joint Research Centre (JRC) Ispra in collaboration with external partners who work to further elaborate the Global Rainfall Erosivity Database (GloREDa).
  2. The data are the result of JRC research activities and are primarily made available for further research. The JRC does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error, missing data or omission in the data, or for any loss or damage arising from its use. The JRC agrees to provide the data free of charge but is not bound to justify the content and values contained in the databases.
  3. The permission to use the data specified above is granted on condition that, under NO CIRCUMSTANCES are these data passed to third parties. They can be used for any purpose, including commercial gain.
  4. The user agrees to:
    • make proper reference to the source of the data when disseminating the results to which this agreement relates;
    • Participate in the verification of the data (e.g. by noting and reporting any errors or omissions discovered to the JRC).

 

Reference of source (Citations) :

Panagos, P., Borrelli, P., Matthews, F., Liakos, L., Bezak, N., Diodato, N. and Ballabio, C., 2022. Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070. Journal of Hydrology, 610, Art.no.127865.DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865

When making reference to the ESDAC

  • Panagos, P., Van Liedekerke, M., Borrelli, P., Köninger, J., Ballabio, C., Orgiazzi, A., Lugato, E., Liakos, L., Hervas, J., Jones, A.  Montanarella, L. 2022. European Soil Data Centre 2.0: Soil data and knowledge in support of the EU policies. European Journal of Soil Science, 73(6), e13315. DOI: 10.1111/ejss.13315
  • Panagos P., Van Liedekerke M., Jones A., Montanarella L., “European Soil Data Centre: Response to European policy support and public data requirements”; (2012) Land Use Policy, 29 (2), pp. 329-338. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.07.003
  • European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC), esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu, European Commission, Joint Research Centre