Global soil erosion by water in 2070

Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). This dataset includes the baseline scenario (2015) and the future projections (2070) of soil erosion based on land use changes and climate change effects.
Global soil erosion by water in 2070
Resource Type: 
Datasets
Soil Threats Data
Registration is requested: 
Yes
Year: 
2020
Language: 
en
Themes: 
Erosion by water
Erosion by water›Global Soil Erosion – Future projections
Keywords: 
soil loss

Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

We use the latest projections of climate and land use change to assess potential global soil erosion rates by water to address policy questions; working towards the goals of the United Nations working groups under the Inter-Governmental Technical Panel on Soils of the Global Soil Partnership. This effort will enable policy makers to explore erosion extent, identify possible hotspots, and work with stakeholders to mitigate potential impacts. In addition, we also provide insight into the potential mitigating effects attributable to conservation agriculture and the need for more effective policy instruments for soil protection. Scientifically, the modeling framework presented adopts a series of methodological advances and standardized data to communicate with adjacent disciplines and move towards robust, reproducible and open data science.

Main highlights

  • Modelled area: 143 million Km2 which is about ~95.5% of Earth's land
  • Resolution: 25Km2 x 25Km2
  • Global Coverage: 202 countries included in the study
  • Three alternative (2.6, 4.5 & 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios
  • 14 General Climate Circulation Models (GCMs) used to assess future rainfall erosivity scenarios
  • The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 43 (-7, +9.2)  Pg yr-1
  • Climate projections indicate an overall trend moving towards a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion up to more than +60% (SSP5-RCP8.5).

Note 1: if your area of interest is Europe, we suggest to download the projections of soil erosion for Europe (2050)

Note 2: The main input for the 2070 erosion projections are the estimation of future Global Rainfall Erosivity. Get the data on  Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

Reference:

Borrelli P., Robinson D.A., Panagos P., Lugato E., Yang J.E., Alewell C., Wuepper D., Montanarella L., Ballabio C. 2020. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 117(36), 21994–22001; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2001403117

Global soil erosion by water in 2070
For any problem / question / comment on this dataset, please contact ec-esdac@ec.europa.eu

Notification:

  1. The data provided has been prepared for use by internal research activities in the Joint Research Centre (JRC, Ispra)  in collaboration with Department of Biological Environment, Kangwon National University (South Korea), the University of Basel (Switzerland), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales (United Kingdom) and the Agricultural Economics and Policy, ETH Zurich (Switzerland).
  2. The data were developed for research purposes of the JRC (European Commission) and other partners (mentioned above). The JRC and other partners do not accept any liability whatsoever for any error, missing data or omission in the data, or for any loss or damage arising from its use. The JRC agrees to provide the data free of charge but is not bound to justify the content and values contained in the databases.
  3. The permission to use the data specified above is granted on condition that, under NO CIRCUMSTANCES are these data passed to third parties. They can be used for any purpose, including commercial gain.
  4. The user agrees to: 
       a) Make proper reference to the source of the data when disseminating the results to which this agreement relates; 
       b) Participate in the verification of the data (e.g. by noting and reporting any errors or omissions discovered to the JRC).

Reference of source (Citations) :

Borrelli P., Robinson D.A., Panagos P., Lugato E., Yang J.E., Alewell C., Wuepper D., Montanarella L., Ballabio C. 2020. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 117(36), 21994–22001; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2001403117

 

When making reference to the ESDAC

  • Panagos, P., Van Liedekerke, M., Borrelli, P., Köninger, J., Ballabio, C., Orgiazzi, A., Lugato, E., Liakos, L., Hervas, J., Jones, A.  Montanarella, L. 2022. European Soil Data Centre 2.0: Soil data and knowledge in support of the EU policies. European Journal of Soil Science, 73(6), e13315. DOI: 10.1111/ejss.13315
  • Panagos P., Van Liedekerke M., Jones A., Montanarella L., “European Soil Data Centre: Response to European policy support and public data requirements”; (2012) Land Use Policy, 29 (2), pp. 329-338. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.07.003
  • European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC), esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu, European Commission, Joint Research Centre